UN Secretary-General António Guterres has warned that restrictions on navigation in the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a global economic downturn, disrupt supply chains, and worsen inflation worldwide.
“I’m deeply concerned about the curtailment of navigational rights & freedoms in the area of the Strait of Hormuz disrupting energy, transport, manufacturing & food markets & strangling the global economy,” Guterres said, adding that “all of humanity is paying the price.”
Outlining three possible scenarios, he said if “restrictions are lifted today,” supply chains would still take months to recover, with global growth dropping from 3.4% to 3.1% and inflation rising from 3.8% to 4.4%.
If “disruption drags on through midyear,” he warned that growth could fall to 2.5% while inflation could reach 5.4%, pushing 32 million people into poverty and leaving 45 million more facing extreme hunger.
In a worst-case scenario where “severe disruptions persist through the end of the year,” Guterres said inflation could rise above 6% and growth could fall to 2%, leading to “immense suffering,” particularly among vulnerable populations.
“We confront the spectre of a global recession – with dramatic impacts on people, on the economy, and on political and social stability,” he added.